000651 格力电器 · 价值机会研究
研究日 2026-09-13 · AI原始财报、现金、同业和期后公告分析；未完成独立候选审查 · 成熟制造现金回报与经营修复
优先复核：现金回报有基础，现价折扣不足品牌、国内主营业务和金融资产收益提供现金回报基础，但海外收入下降、保证金释放及再投资需求必须拆开。零增长基准条件价值约40.91元，对比38.74元研究价仅有约5.3%折扣，未达到充分安全边际。经营止跌、真实回购注销和持续现金兑现是复核重点。
研究时收盘 38.74 CNY（2026-09-11）；行情源 PE(TTM) 7.79。口径核验与局限见下方估值分析。
这是一份机会研究备忘录，包含 AI 推论和待验证条件；尚未通过完整候选审查，不产生入池或交易指令。
已核对事实
2026H1收入893.97523亿元下降8.15%，归母132.77591亿元下降7.87%，扣非127.06673亿元下降8.89%；2025全年归母290.03103亿元、扣非277.06292亿元也同比下降。当前属于经营承压中的价值观察，尚未出现集团利润反转。
内销主营725.11978亿元增长1.90%，外销主营127.43950亿元下降21.98%。公司称海外下滑与中东业务、地缘冲突和坚持品牌溢价的策略有关；其影响是否短期仍需实际订单验证，不能直接将收入下降都归因于外部周期。
消费电器收入740.74115亿元下降2.89%。公司在半年报援引AVC数据称格力品牌家用空调全渠道零售份额25.8%；本轮未独立取得AVC原始样本，按公司引述处理，不据此推导份额同比增加。
半年销售收款778.30304亿元，低于上年同期940.18300亿元；经营现金188.08832亿元，低于283.28562亿元。2025全年经营现金463.83115亿元中，156.67164亿元为票据、保函保证金等受限资金释放。后者不等于新的销售利润，也不能逐年外推。
半年末货币资金1282.48277亿元，其中785.85679亿元为不属于现金等价物的定期存款及应计利息，139.63045亿元受限，现金及现金等价物为356.99554亿元。短期借款797.19240亿元；货币资金总额不等于股东可立即拿走的净现金。
其他流动负债598.24777亿元中销售返利484.66650亿元；另有合同负债84.74271亿元。它们是渠道和履约义务，不能因未即时支付就从估值约束中删除。6月末应付股利112.40638亿元，需与之后已实施分红区分时点。
金融资产分布于交易性金融资产、存款、其他债权投资及其他流动/非流动资产。其他债权投资附注已包含重分类到一年内到期及其他流动资产的金额；若用分部估值，必须先消除重复。本轮采用金融收益现金路径，不另加这些资产本金。
2025年度每股股息合计3元，包括中期1元和末期2元。末期登记日2026年8月26日、除息日8月27日，9月11日新买入不享有该次股息；半年报对2026中期分红暂未作出派发决定，不能承诺下一次分红。
最新回购公告：截至8月31日实际回购174万股、支付6823.23万元；50亿至100亿元是获批计划，不是已支出金额。计划至少70%用于注销、最多30%用于激励；不把全部计划直接从股本扣掉。
8月18日另有1626.7万股由回购账户转入第四期员工持股计划，购买金额6.28069亿元，非注销。估值使用总股本56.01405741亿股；回购与员工持股需合并看每股经济效果。
格力钛仍存在对原股东等未收回借款，合计约2381.26万元；其为客户融资租赁购车的表外担保约4.03978亿元。报告另披露阶段性购房按揭担保约13.51502亿元。未发生的赔付不直接当确定损失，但须持续核查回收与担保责任。
多维价值判断
客户与竞争：空调制冷技术、品牌信誉、安装服务和渠道覆盖有价值；更新替换需求提供基础，但地产、天气、补贴和价格竞争仍影响销量与毛利。研发投入和获奖不能单独证明新增业务会带来超额回报。
经营修复：内销主营小幅增长与海外下降并存，集团净利润仍负增长。需区分非主营业务收缩、海外策略选择和终端需求，不用低PE代替反转证据。
独立同业比较：美的2026H1收入增长3.55%、归母增长1.66%、经营现金增长0.73%，但扣非下降25.31%。美的解释汇兑损失计经常损益、配套衍生工具收益计非经常损益；不能只比扣非增速就断言格力经营更强。美的业务组合更广，也不能把集团增速直接等同于空调份额变化。
现金质量：将销售利润、贷款和垫款本金变动、法定准备金、票据保证金与股份支付分开。营运资金归零只是一种正常化假设，不代表应收、存货和渠道负债能无成本释放。
资本需求：TTM列报资本现金约14.61亿元，低于固定资产及使用权折旧、无形摊销的规模。不能证明未来维持性资本支出一直这么低，因此测算正常资本现金25/45/65亿元，并单列融资与租赁成本假设。
金融资产收益：存款和债券收益对集团现金有贡献，应纳入判断；本轮采取保留金融本金、分配可持续收益的路径，并保留融资现金成本。没有把金融收益现值与同一批金融资产本金再次相加；若改为分配本金，须同步扣减以后收益并重估。
资本配置与治理：注销能提高每股价值，但激励过户会抵消部分效果。新能源、装备业务、历史担保和资金回收决定主业现金能否留给普通股股东，低估判断须同时审查资本分配。
估值与反向要求
研究日价格38.74元，法定总股本56.01405741亿股，股权市值约2170亿元。TTM归母利润278.68287亿元，对应约7.79倍PE；该利润包含金融收益，不能同时视作纯制造业利润再另加全部金融资产。
TTM=2025全年-2025H1+2026H1。列报经营现金368.63385亿元；存货、经营应收及经营应付变动合计为-27.52219亿元，现金补充表其他为92.12141亿元。将这两项变动归零后参照304.03463亿元。
其他92.12141亿元可勾稽为保证金释放91.45002亿元-法定准备金净增加9.32719亿元+股份支付现金补充表加回9.99858亿元。整体剔除后已保留股份支付经济成本，不再重复扣一笔相同费用。贷款及垫款变化已包含在现金桥相关调整中，也不再单独重复扣除。
上述参照扣除列报资本现金、另列付息、租赁和少数股东分配，再剔除经营收息、金融手续费利息收款及政府补助，机械得到约265.61694亿元主业现金参照。它保留原现金税负，不是经税项和业务边界独立审查的FCFE。
跨报告的租赁付款口径有待核查：2025全年5680.29万元小于2025H1的5911.79万元，机械TTM仅260.05万元。本轮没有取得退款或分类变化解释，不能把这个拼接差额当正常租金。未来融资与租赁合计按17亿元假设，参照TTM应计利息约15.47703亿元及一年内到期租赁约0.99083亿元，不将其当融资预算承诺。
按上述17亿元融资租赁假设，年度资本现金25/45/65亿元对应主业现金约248.03/228.03/208.03亿元。45亿元资本现金是接近折旧规模的研究假设，并非公司披露的维持性支出；折旧与经济维持支出也不完全相等。
TTM实际定期存款利息收款61.99776亿元；加投资收益收款及经营中列示的金融收息，合计参照76.65561亿元，包含支付时点和收益构成差异。基准将未来金融现金收入设为50亿元，低于该参照，并保留原现金桥税负；金融资产本金维持、不再另计资产加项。
基准主业现金228.03亿元加正常金融收入50亿元后，向下取总现金275亿元。保守230亿元、基准275亿元、乐观345亿元，分别要求13%/12%/11%回报，均不设增长、不加资产本金，条件价值约31.59/40.91/55.99元。乐观需要主业正常现金280亿元及金融现金65亿元，尚未得到当前经营趋势证实。
现价比基准价值低约5.3%，不构成充分安全边际。按12%要求回报、零增长、无额外资产，现价需要年度股东现金260.40亿元；另留30%折扣则需372.00亿元。基准再留30%折扣的数学价格约28.64元；这不代替原候选审查。
2025年度3元股息对研究价约7.74%历史税前收益率，不代表新买入即可领取过去股息或未来保证维持。回购计划上限54.55元也不是公司给出的内在价值或保底价格。
估值取决于上述假设，情景没有赋予发生概率，不能把乐观情景作为目标价。
计算输入、现金调整及逐年折现结果
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"method": "包含正常金融收益的普通股现金情景DCF；不额外添加金融资产本金",
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"2026H1": {
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"guarantee_release": -259839839.37,
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"other": -413128466.53,
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"core_cash_after_reported_capital": 26561693665.610004,
"normalized_capital_45e8_cash": 23522842689.630005,
"interest_expense_accrual": 1547703465.25,
"normalized_finance_and_lease": 1700000000.0,
"normal_cash_capital_45e8": 22803148337.490005,
"capital_sensitivity": [
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{
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{
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"deposit_interest_received": 6199776361.82,
"base_financial_cash_assumption": 5000000000.0,
"base_total_cash_before_rounding": 27803148337.490005,
"base_total_cash": 27500000000.0,
"investment_receipts": 751398869.55,
"total_financial_receipts_reference": 7665560502.88,
"lease_splice_limit": "2025全年列报56,802,915.10小于2025H1的59,117,875.20，未取得分类或退款解释；260万元仅为跨报告拼接差额，不据其预测未来租金"
}
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"scenarios": [
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"normal_financial_cash_cny": 3000000000.0,
"excess_cash_cny": 0,
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"annual_cash_cny": [
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0
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18012373717.59731,
15940153732.387001,
14106330736.625666,
12483478527.987316
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{
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"normal_financial_cash_cny": 5000000000.0,
"excess_cash_cny": 0,
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27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0
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24553571428.571426,
21922831632.653057,
19573956814.868797,
17476747156.132854,
15604238532.261477
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{
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34500000000.0,
34500000000.0,
34500000000.0,
34500000000.0
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28000973946.919888,
25226102654.882782,
22726218608.002502,
20474070818.02027
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{
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"required_cash0_with_margin_cny": 37199735726.80115
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"formula": "cash=normal_operating_cash+normal_financial_cash; V=sum(cash/(1+r)^t,t=1..5)+cash/r/(1+r)^5; per_share=V/total_shares; no_asset_addition",
"finance_tax_note": "主业桥仍保留合并现金税负，正常金融现金收入按较低假设加入；未精算金融税项归属和未来税额，不称独立审查FCFE",
"buyback": {
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"as_of": "2026-08-31",
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"plan_max_cash": 10000000000.0,
"min_cancellation_fraction": 0.7,
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"employee_transfer_cash": 628068870
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"dividends": {
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"final2025_dps": 2,
"record_date": "2026-08-26",
"ex_date": "2026-08-27",
"new_buyer_entitled": false
},
"event_coverage": {
"start": "2026-03-13",
"end": "2026-09-13",
"count": 77,
"has_more": false,
"announcements": [
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{
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{
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{
"title": "2026年半年度非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来情况",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-27/1225515005.PDF",
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{
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{
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{
"title": "关于2025年年度权益分派实施后调整股份回购价格上限的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-21/1225487187.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-08-21"
},
{
"title": "关于第四期员工持股计划非交易过户完成的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225483700.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-08-20"
},
{
"title": "关于以集中竞价方式首次回购股份暨回购股份进展的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-19/1225480467.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-08-19"
},
{
"title": "关于股份回购进展情况的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-04/1225455000.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-08-04"
},
{
"title": "关于持股5%以上股东股份补充质押的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-16/1225426975.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-07-16"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度股东会决议公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-01/1225400672.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-07-01"
},
{
"title": "北京观韬（珠海）律师事务所关于珠海格力电器股份有限公司2025年年度股东会的法律意见书",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-01/1225400673.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-07-01"
},
{
"title": "关于调整2025年年度股东会现场会议地点的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-27/1225392782.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-27"
},
{
"title": "北京观韬（珠海）律师事务所关于珠海格力电器股份有限公司第四期员工持股计划（草案）的法律意见书",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-25/1225386235.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-25"
},
{
"title": "关于回购股份事项前十名股东和前十名无限售条件股东持股情况的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-25/1225386234.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-25"
},
{
"title": "关于大股东减持计划期限届满暨减持结果的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-22/1225379718.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-22"
},
{
"title": "薪酬与考核委员会关于公司第四期员工持股计划相关事项的审核意见",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377014.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "董事会议事规则",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377018.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "董事会关于《第四期员工持股计划（草案）》的合规性说明",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377013.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "关于2025年年度股东会增加临时提案暨股东会补充通知及组织股东参观活动的通知",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377016.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "第四期员工持股计划（草案）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377011.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "第四期员工持股计划（草案）摘要",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377012.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "第十三届董事会第六次会议决议公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377015.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "关于董事辞任的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377017.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "公司章程",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377020.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "《公司章程》修订对照表",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-18/1225377019.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-18"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度报告（英文版）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-17/1225374514.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-17"
},
{
"title": "2025年度环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）报告（英文版）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-17/1225374513.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-17"
},
{
"title": "关于持股5%以上股东权益变动比例触及1%整数倍的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-05/1225353114.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-06-05"
},
{
"title": "关于召开2025年度网上业绩说明会的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-05-20/1225317972.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-05-20"
},
{
"title": "关于回购股份事项前十名股东和前十名无限售条件股东持股情况的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-05-08/1225282572.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-05-08"
},
{
"title": "关于使用自有闲置资金进行投资理财的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250393.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度报告摘要",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250395.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "董事会对独立董事独立性自查情况的专项报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250399.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "众环专字(2026)0500414号关于珠海格力电器股份有限公司非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来情况汇总表的专项审核报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250400.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年度会计师事务所履职情况评估报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250403.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2026年一季度报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250406.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度利润分配预案的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250408.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于2026开展外汇衍生品套期保值业务的可行性分析报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250414.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于拟续聘会计师事务所的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250433.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "会计师事务所非经营性资金占用及其他关联资金往来情况的专项审核报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250401.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "董事会审计委员会对会计师事务所履行监督职责情况报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250402.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于2026年开展大宗材料期货套期保值业务的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250412.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于日常关联交易预计的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250416.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于聘任证券事务代表的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250417.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年度内部控制评价报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250420.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "内部控制审计报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250421.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年度环境、社会及公司治理（ESG）报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250422.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（邢子文）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250424.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于2026年开展外汇衍生品套期保值业务的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250411.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于2026年开展大宗材料期货套期保值业务的可行性分析报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250413.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（翁国民）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250425.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（程明）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250428.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于董事薪酬方案的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250431.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于高级管理人员薪酬方案的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250432.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250396.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年年度审计报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250398.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "第十三届董事会第五次会议决议公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250409.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于召开2025年年度股东会的通知",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250410.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于开展票据池业务的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250415.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于会计政策变更的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250418.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "2025年度董事会工作报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250430.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于珠海格力电器股份有限公司涉及财务公司关联交易的存款、贷款等金融业务的专项审核报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250434.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于回购部分社会公众股份方案的公告暨回购股份报告书",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250394.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "董事会关于证券投资情况的专项说明",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250404.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于珠海格力集团财务有限责任公司风险评估报告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250405.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于“质量回报双提升”行动方案的进展公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250419.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（张秋生）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250423.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（王晓华）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250426.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（刘姝威）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250427.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "独立董事2025年度述职报告（李红旗）",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-29/1225250429.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"title": "关于子公司之间提供担保的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-11/1225095698.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-04-11"
},
{
"title": "关于持股5%以上股东部分股份解除质押的公告",
"url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-25/1225028613.PDF",
"published_at": "2026-03-25"
}
]
}
}这是当前价格对未来现金能力的要求，不是已经实现的现金流或目标价。输入需扣除再投资和融资义务，不能直接用会计利润替代。
反向计算输入与历史现金核对
{
"method": "包含正常金融收益的普通股现金情景DCF；不额外添加金融资产本金",
"shares": 5601405741,
"periods": {
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"ocf": 46383114754.02,
"capex": 1717311068.1,
"lease": 56802915.1,
"interest_paid": 1370539890.8599987,
"nci_div": 45284966.1,
"deposit_change": -97277745.41,
"loan_change": 1096845000,
"reserve_change": 35123619.38,
"guarantee_release": 15667164024.7,
"wc": -1546637786.2799997,
"sbc": 1459701844.8,
"subsidy": 868886645.06,
"ocf_interest": 526443161.94,
"other": 17091742250.12,
"financial_receipts": 200053993.35
},
"2025H1": {
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"capex": 986050182.03,
"lease": 59117875.2,
"interest_paid": 652317234.8899994,
"nci_div": 5984966.1,
"deposit_change": -67391797.82,
"loan_change": -73385000,
"reserve_change": -474280104.65,
"guarantee_release": 6262321782.58,
"wc": 7356273727.9,
"sbc": 729870687.37,
"subsidy": 381173096.57,
"ocf_interest": 168821049.02,
"other": 7466472574.6,
"financial_receipts": 84615506.65
},
"2026H1": {
"ocf": 18808832392.46,
"capex": 729888137.95,
"lease": 4915486.5,
"interest_paid": 259482465.49000072,
"nci_div": 12517688.32,
"deposit_change": -26349523.27,
"loan_change": -4295049140,
"reserve_change": 423315019.48,
"guarantee_release": -259839839.37,
"wc": 6150692092.74,
"sbc": 270026392.32,
"subsidy": 146398325.92,
"ocf_interest": 94998484.84,
"other": -413128466.53,
"financial_receipts": 146326187.05
},
"TTM": {
"ocf": 36863384959.28,
"capex": 1461149024.02,
"lease": 2600526.3999999985,
"interest_paid": 977705121.46,
"nci_div": 51817688.32,
"deposit_change": -56235470.86,
"loan_change": -3124819140,
"reserve_change": 932718743.51,
"guarantee_release": 9145002402.75,
"wc": -2752219421.4400005,
"sbc": 999857549.75,
"subsidy": 634111874.41,
"ocf_interest": 452620597.76,
"other": 9212141208.99,
"financial_receipts": 261764673.75,
"zero_wc_and_other_before_capital": 30403463171.730003,
"core_cash_after_reported_capital": 26561693665.610004,
"normalized_capital_45e8_cash": 23522842689.630005,
"interest_expense_accrual": 1547703465.25,
"normalized_finance_and_lease": 1700000000.0,
"normal_cash_capital_45e8": 22803148337.490005,
"capital_sensitivity": [
{
"capital": 2500000000.0,
"cash": 24803148337.490005
},
{
"capital": 4500000000.0,
"cash": 22803148337.490005
},
{
"capital": 6500000000.0,
"cash": 20803148337.490005
}
],
"deposit_interest_received": 6199776361.82,
"base_financial_cash_assumption": 5000000000.0,
"base_total_cash_before_rounding": 27803148337.490005,
"base_total_cash": 27500000000.0,
"investment_receipts": 751398869.55,
"total_financial_receipts_reference": 7665560502.88,
"lease_splice_limit": "2025全年列报56,802,915.10小于2025H1的59,117,875.20，未取得分类或退款解释；260万元仅为跨报告拼接差额，不据其预测未来租金"
}
},
"scenarios": [
{
"name": "保守",
"cash0_cny": 23000000000.0,
"growth": 0,
"discount": 0.13,
"terminal_growth": 0,
"normal_operating_cash_cny": 20000000000.0,
"normal_financial_cash_cny": 3000000000.0,
"excess_cash_cny": 0,
"fair_value": 31.58547784319075,
"annual_cash_cny": [
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0,
23000000000.0
],
"annual_pv_cny": [
20353982300.884956,
18012373717.59731,
15940153732.387001,
14106330736.625666,
12483478527.987316
],
"terminal_pv_cny": 96026757907.59473,
"operating_value_cny": 176923076923.07697,
"terminal_weight_in_operating_value": 0.5427599359994483
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{
"name": "基准",
"cash0_cny": 27500000000.0,
"growth": 0,
"discount": 0.12,
"terminal_growth": 0,
"normal_operating_cash_cny": 22500000000.0,
"normal_financial_cash_cny": 5000000000.0,
"excess_cash_cny": 0,
"fair_value": 40.91234901790104,
"annual_cash_cny": [
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0,
27500000000.0
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}
}价值实现与催化剂
海外订单和出货恢复，国内主营收入增长在不加大返利与账期的情况下转为现金。
回购按计划实施并实际注销，激励过户之后普通股每股经济权益仍改善。
维持性资本投入、债务利息及金融资产到期回报得到预算和后续报表验证，持续股东现金超过现价要求。
推翻判断的条件
内销增长依赖新增返利或延长账期，海外继续丢失客户，不能继续使用稳定主业现金。
低资本现金来自推迟更新、工程应付款或资产处置，后续必需支出明显增加，调低正常现金。
金融资产收益率下降或本金受损，同时融资成本未相应下降；不能维持50亿元金融现金假设。
资金持续投入低回报多元业务、担保发生损失，或回购主要转为激励而未兑现注销，降低股东回报判断。
下一步必须补齐
补分业务终端销量、渠道库存与返利兑现，核对主要海外地区和原材料成本影响。
核对2025全年与半年租赁付款的差额解释，以及2026完整维持性资本预算和债务利息支付安排。
逐产品复核金融资产到期、质押、收益率及财务公司资金可分配性；若改用资产法，须重新扣除对应金融收益，避免重复估值。
跟踪已回购股份的注销、激励过户和下一次分红决议；完成独立反方及原候选门槛审查。
正式来源
2025年年度报告 · 2026-04-29
2026年半年度报告 · 2026-08-27
关于股份回购进展情况的公告 · 2026-09-02
2025年年度权益分派实施公告 · 2026-08-21
关于第四期员工持股计划非交易过户完成的公告 · 2026-08-20
2025年半年度报告 · 2025-08-29
美的集团2026年半年度报告（独立同业披露） · 2026-08-29
行情：仓库 CN/富曜或 HK/富途快照。研究中的增长、竞争优势和价值实现路径需后续检验；不将管理层目标当作事实。