600036 招商银行 · 价值机会研究

研究日 2026-09-13 · AI原始财报、同业资本与条件股息分析；未完成独立候选审查 · 银行价值修复、财富业务与资本分配

优先研究：资本与分红基础较强，现价折扣未证实

统一普通股利润、资本计量和股息口径后，招商银行在本轮三家银行中更值得优先研究，但零售风险和息差下行仍在。以保留资本约束、提高未来派息为条件，基准每股价值约33.90元，低于41.35元研究价；乐观情景约48.61元也需盈利修复。公司质量优势尚不能替代现价安全边际。

研究时收盘 41.35 CNY（2026-09-11）；行情源 PE(TTM) 6.87。口径核验与局限见下方估值分析。

这是一份机会研究备忘录，包含 AI 推论和待验证条件；尚未通过完整候选审查，不产生入池或交易指令。

已核对事实

2026H1集团收入1781.81亿元增长4.83%，归母764.45亿元增长2.02%；扣优先股分配3.22亿元及永续债分配9.80亿元后，普通股利润751.43亿元。普通股EPS2.98元增长3.11%，快于归母增速部分来自优先级权益分配减少，不能全称主营经营加速。

母行半年净利润669.10亿元，低于上年同期672.22亿元；集团和母行利润趋势不同。估值同时使用两者，未把集团子公司盈利自动当母行可分配现金。

集团半年净利息收入1120.22亿元，同比增长约5.60%；净利息收益率1.83%，同比下降5个基点，第二季度1.82%、环比下降1个基点。生息资产平均收益率2.82%、付息负债成本1.05%，贷款定价下降仍未被负债成本下降完全抵消。

集团净手续费收入398.55亿元增长5.99%，其中财富管理手续费161.92亿元增长26.53%；资产管理手续费下降1.52%，银行卡手续费下降11.73%。市场回暖可能推动财富业务恢复，但业务之间并非全面同步增长。

集团平均存款成本0.97%，平均活期存款占比49.60%；公司零售客户2.31亿户，管理零售客户资产18.441463万亿元、较年末增长7.96%。客户和渠道提供交叉销售基础；AUM包含市场估值变化，不等于同额新增净流入。

集团不良率0.94%持平，不良余额702.51亿元增加20.45亿元；零售不良率由1.06%升至1.16%，信用卡由1.74%升至1.90%，消费贷款由1.02%升至1.39%。拨备覆盖率由391.79%降至385.10%，信用成本年化0.69%、上年同期0.67%。

信用减值费用291.77亿元增长18.49%，其中贷款254.63亿元、表外37.08亿元；金融投资净转回6.10亿元。利润小幅增长发生在总信用费用上升的同时，但不意味着零售风险已经见顶。

集团地产相关承担信用风险的业务3592.09亿元；另外1707.13亿元为公司列示的不承担信用风险业务，不直接当自营风险资产相加。集团地产行业贷款不良率4.47%，母行4.27%，两者不可混用。

集团高级法核心一级资本比率14.07%，权重法为11.84%；母行分别13.67%和11.31%。同业比较采用权重法，不能将招行高级法与城商行权重法直接排名。集团、母行权重法总资本比率为15.06%和14.40%。

半年末归母权益13450.33亿元，减优先股与永续债等其他权益1999.89亿元后，普通股净资产11450.44亿元。总股本25,219,845,601股含A股及H股；普通股每股净资产约45.40元。估值使用全部普通股，不只用A股流通股数。

2025年度股息每股2.016元，由中期1.013元和末期1.003元构成；A股末期登记日7月9日、除息和支付日7月10日。9月11日新买入不享有这次已除息分红；本轮未取得2026中期具体每股分配金额，不将授权计划当确定股息。

期后治理公告已核查：王小青行长任职自2026年7月28日起获准生效；行长助理王兴海因工作原因辞任，自9月7日起生效，公司披露已完成交接。江苏银行袁军7月13日辞去行长、首席合规官后继续任董事长。职务调整本身不构成违规证据，后续战略、风险偏好及资本分配是否变化仍需观察。

多维价值判断

客户与壁垒：全国结算网络、零售财富客户、支付账户和私行业务为低成本资金和收费业务提供基础。相对较低的平均存款成本是支持证据，但并不保证数字平台竞争、存款外流和价格压力不会削弱优势。

修复性质：当前更像低增速银行的收入与财富业务修复，而非亏损企业扭亏。财富销售回暖与贷款资产质量压力并存，应看跨周期盈利及每股分配，不只看单季增速。

信用判断：信用卡、消费和小微不良均承压，地产风险仍需回收验证。金融投资转回幅度小于杭州银行相对自身利润的贡献，但银行会计扣非同样不能自动剔除信用周期。

普通股回报：集团盈利、母行盈利和优先级权益分配必须分开。使用全部A/H股本及普通股净资产后，低PE仍有意义，但不能把优先股或永续债资产权益再分给普通股股东。

同业比较：按TTM普通股利润重算，招行7.14倍、江苏6.78倍、杭州6.57倍；2025历史税前股息率分别4.88%、4.49%、3.77%。招行普通股利润估值稍高，但资本和历史分配相对更强；这只是三家公司比较，不是全行业最优结论。

资本可比性：权重法并表核心一级资本比率招行11.84%、江苏8.67%、杭州9.52%。资本监管要求、信用组合和少数股东资本计入仍不同，不能把几个百分点的差直接当可立即派发现金。江苏2026H1资产增长13.79%、RWA增长约8.43%，资本增长落后；母行资本与工具期限尚需补齐。

收益率口径：江苏披露1.64%净息差还原了交易性金融资产持有收益，其平均贷款还包含长期应收款；与招行、杭州列报口径有差异。因此不以表面息差或贷款收益率高低直接推断风险调整后经营更优。

价格隐含假说：当前价格可能已包含财富业务修复和未来较高派息；若利润增长较慢、资本持续留存或零售损失增加，低PB不必回到1倍。若现金分配明显增强、风险稳定而价格未反映，才可能形成投资分歧；本轮没有一致预期数据。

公司	研究价（人民币）	普通股TTM PE	历史税前股息率	权重法并表核心一级资本	披露净息差及口径
招商银行	41.35	7.14	4.88%	11.84%	1.83%；集团净利息收益率
江苏银行	12.57	6.78	4.49%	8.67%	1.64%；还原交易性金融资产持有收益口径；不能直接横比
杭州银行	17.51	6.57	3.77%	9.52%	1.39%；集团净息差

价格截至各研究快照日期，股息率使用2025年度分配额，不代表新买入可领取过去股息。资本计量方法统一后，监管要求和资产风险仍有差异；净息差按各家披露保留口径说明。

估值与反向要求

41.35元乘总股本，股权市值约10428.41亿元。TTM归母1516.96亿元，扣优先级权益分配56.34亿元后普通股利润1460.62亿元，对应7.14倍普通股PE，而非行情6.87倍。

TTM金融投资减值净转回30.84亿元，假设未来净转回归零并按25%边际税率扣除，普通股盈利参照1437.49亿元、PE7.25倍；母行普通股盈利参照1281.0125亿元。保留已列贷款信用成本和融资成本，未删除全部正常金融业务收入。

在正常化参照上，净息差再降10个基点、贷款信用成本再升10个基点，按半年平均资产固定、25%税率估算，分别影响92.77458亿元及54.37005亿元，压力后普通股盈利约1290.35亿元。它是线性敏感性，不是下一年度预测。

条件股息模型前5年同时约束母行与并表的核心一级、一级和总资本，维持2026年6月末权重法各项实际资本比率，不强迫补至人为更高目标，也不释放期初资本。保守/基准/乐观起始集团普通股利润1250/1400/1500亿元，母行1100/1250/1350亿元。

前5年普通股利润增长分别0%/3%/6%，RWA增长3%/4%/5%，普通股派息上限40%/40%/45%。每年实际情景股息取派息政策、母行利润和六项资本空间中的最小值。基准每股分红约2.220、2.287、2.356、2.426、2.499元，均为假设。

第6年起，利润和RWA分别按0%/2%/3%永续增长，利润先留足新增风险资产所需资本，再分配余额。留存取各口径最高资本比率对应增量，可维持其他资本工具净额固定下的各级目标；不以高增长配零资本投入。期初普通股净资产和监管资本没有额外加到股息现值。

按13%/12%/11%要求回报，保守/基准/乐观条件价值约25.18/33.90/48.61元。基准现价高约22%，乐观也仅比现价高约17.6%；不能凭乐观情景确认充分安全边际。基准再留30%折扣约23.73元，只是同一组假设的数学参照，不是已通过候选门槛的买入价。

终值很重要：基准第6年每股分红约4.487元、约占集团利润70.4%，明显高于前5年40%的上限；这是增长放缓、资本留存减少并实际提高分配的条件，不是公司承诺。若维持较低分红或继续低回报资本积累，本模型会高估股东回报。

基准终值占总现值约75.1%。若第6年以后普通股分红仍不超过集团利润40%，其余假设不变，条件价值降至约22.91元；这说明未来资本分配政策足以改变判断。本模型既未把积累的未分配资本当可立即提取现金，也未给低回报闲置留存另加价值。

尚未完成资本工具到期与折算、未来公积及一般风险准备、监管利润确认、子公司上划和董事会分配政策的逐年核验。本轮条件模型用于审查价格要求，未接入银行自动入池，也不称已验证的银行内在价值。

情景	起始年度普通股利润假设（亿元人民币）	前5年普通股利润增长	折现率	永续增长	假设价值（元人民币/股）	相对研究价
保守	1250	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	25.18	-39.1%
基准	1400	3.0%	12.0%	2.0%	33.90	-18.0%
乐观	1500	6.0%	11.0%	3.0%	48.61	+17.6%

估值取决于上述假设，情景没有赋予发生概率，不能把乐观情景作为目标价。

计算输入、现金调整及逐年折现结果

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  "ordinary_book": 1145044000000.0,
  "parent_book": 1345033000000.0,
  "other_equity": 199989000000.0,
  "assumed_tax": 0.25,
  "method": "普通股股息条件模型：前5年盈利与分红受双口径六项资本约束；终值留存支持RWA增长，无账面净资产加项",
  "balance_date": "2026-06-30",
  "quote_date": "2026-09-11",
  "policy": "维持2026年6月30日权重法下母行与并表各级资本比率（用净额/RWA精确值）；不是监管最低要求或公司未来资本规划",
  "formulas": [
    "E[t,entity]=E0[entity]*(1+profit_growth)^(t-1); RWA[t,entity]=RWA0[entity]*(1+rwa_growth)^t",
    "D[t]=min(payout_ceiling*E[t,group], E[t,solo], min(K[t-1,entity,capital]+E[t,entity]-target_ratio[entity,capital]*RWA[t,entity]))",
    "K[t,entity,capital]=K[t-1,entity,capital]+E[t,entity]-D[t]; no release of opening capital",
    "E6=E5*(1+terminal_growth); terminal_retention[entity]=RWA5[entity]*terminal_growth*max(target_ratio[entity].values()); D6=min(E6[entity]-terminal_retention[entity])",
    "P=sum(D[t]/(1+r)^t,t=1..5)/shares + D6/(r-terminal_growth)/(1+r)^5/shares; no book value or excess capital addition"
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "正常利润、增长、派息和折现率均为研究假设，不是公司承诺或概率加权预测。半年度报表作为最新输入，没有假造7月至9月资本数据。",
    "其他一级、二级资本净额固定，隐含到期工具能维持规模及普通股利润假设中的融资成本；新增发行、折算、监管扣除和OCI冲击未完成逐项预测。",
    "保留母行与集团各自利润口径，普通股分红不得高于母行利润；未将未上划子公司利润直接当母行可支配资金，亦未单独估值子公司。",
    "前5年普通股派息上限为40%/40%/45%；第6年改为利润扣必要资本留存后的分配，存在明显派息提升。管理层是否执行未证实，终值不能当确定退出价格。",
    "终值假设利润与RWA按相同速度增长；按各口径最高资本比率留存增量，足以在其他资本净额固定时维持全部资本目标，不用高增长配零留存。",
    "一般风险准备、法定/任意盈余公积、监管利润确认及未来董事会分配政策尚未逐年验证；模型不是可实施分红承诺，银行自动候选入口仍保留模型资料不足限制。"
  ],
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    "fy2025_final": 1.003,
    "a_record_date": "2026-07-09",
    "a_ex_date": "2026-07-10",
    "new_buyer_entitled_to_fy2025": false,
    "h12026_dps": null,
    "h12026_status": "计划授权与具体分配金额分开；截至近半年公告查询未取得具体每股金额"
  },
  "credit_stress": {
    "average_interest_assets": 12369944000000,
    "average_loans": 7249340000000,
    "nim_down_bps": 10,
    "loan_credit_cost_up_bps": 10,
    "nim_after_tax_impact": 9277458000.0,
    "loan_credit_after_tax_impact": 5437005000.0,
    "combined_profit": 129034537000.0
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      "name": "招商银行",
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      "shares": 25219845601,
      "ordinary_ttm": 146062000000.0,
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      "cet1_advanced": 0.1407,
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      "nim_note": "集团净利息收益率",
      "profit_yoy": 0.0202,
      "eps_yoy": 0.0311
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      "cet1_advanced": null,
      "reported_nim": 0.0164,
      "nim_note": "还原交易性金融资产持有收益口径；不能直接横比",
      "profit_yoy": 0.0809,
      "eps_yoy": 0.0971
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